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Friday, July 01, 2005


Jane's predicts regime change in Uzbekistan

From Eurasia.Net:

Is the regime of Uzbek President Islam Karimov heading toward a violent end?

Given the Uzbek leader’s tight grip on power, such a prediction would seem to be bold, if not downright brash.

Yet that is precisely what the essay this week in "Jane’s" -- along with some Western analysts -- is predicting following last month’s unrest in Andijon.

The unsigned "Jane’s" essay rejects the idea that the events in Andijon were planned abroad or involved Islamic militants. It says the events were the climax of months of pent-up frustrations and nationwide protests. "There is probably nothing beyond socio-economic conditions that connects the various manifestations of stability," the piece says.

It goes on to state that "it is likely that the country is now beyond a point where the government can control unrest using violence, although this will not stop it trying."

Analysts such as Noubel interviewed by RFE/RL largely agreed that Uzbekistan is fast approaching a major crisis. But not all of them appeared to agree that Karimov’s regime is necessarily heading toward a violent end.

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