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Thursday, May 19, 2005


CIS leaders prepare for battle

From Kommersant:

The news from the CIS countries more and more sounds like reports from the battle fields. The information about the tough measures towards the “orange threat” is coming from everywhere. Byelorussia gathers the closed meeting of law enforcements which suppose to come up with new methods of fighting against revolutionary masses.

Kazakhstan adopts the law prohibiting the organization of any demonstrations after the announcement of final election results. Moscow blocks Leninsky Prospect (avenue) to let the Ours (pro-Putin political organization) to have huge anti-“orange” demonstration. The head politicians of each of these countries openly or clandestinely criticize the “color revolutions”. “Maybe somewhere the “orange revolution” is possible, but not in our country,”- parliamentarians of Moscow, Minsk and Astana repeat like some sort of mantra.

However, their actions tell a different tale. The authorities behave themselves like there is an enemy outside of the door and they are under the siege. Nobody seriously threatens them yet, but the authorities are ready for the last decisive battle.

“Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbaev did not discuss the situation in Uzbekistan,” the government news agency RIA “Novosti” reported yesterday. Today Alexander Lukashenko should arrive with official visit to Kazakhstan. Does anybody believe that Lukashenko and Nazarbaev will not even mention Andijan events during their negotiations? Everyone understands that crush of the “color revolutions” is the main agenda for post-Soviet leaders. Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, assures that Andijan events have nothing to do with the “color revolutions.” For the fighters with the “orange threat” the defeat of the “akronists” is precedent showing that it is possible to fight against the revolution. It is a landmark marking the end of the “orange march.” Andijan it is like some sort of Stalingrad that renews the hope about full victory over the “orange” enemy in the nearest future. The Moscow’ words of support for Tashkent praising it for heroic fight with terrorism shows the Andijan massacre a positive example of such fight. Alledgedly Islam Karimov had shown what to do when the enemy enters the house.

There are no doubts that yesterday in Chelyabinsk and today in Astana the presidents discuss what to do with this lesson and how to use Uzbek experience. Soon Lukashenko and Nazarbaev will face election. Most likely, they will try to be ready to use Karimov’s method – do not take example from such bleeding hearts liberals like Askar Akaev and Leonid Kuchma. There is only one question to the hard-liners: Do you understand that Andijan is not over yet? The events in Uzbekistan just started and who knows what is going to be with Tashkent regime in a year or two. Will it survive the election? The bleeding hearts liberal like ex-presidents Kuchma and Shevarnadze live at least in their motherlands. Askar Akaev might come home someday. However, there is a different fate might wait for Karimov and his surrounding.

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